Historically, U.S. stock markets have shown weaker performance from May through October than from November through April, leading to the strategy becoming a seasonal rule-of-thumb for some investors. Bitcoin also shows recurring seasonal patterns, often influenced by macro cycles, institutional flows, and retail sentiment. CoinGlass data show the asset’s May performance has been negative or muted recently. In 2021, BTC dropped 35%, one of its worst months that year. In 2022, May was again negative, with a 15% drop amid Luna’s collapse. In 2023, BTC was flat to mildly positive, reflecting muted volatility.BTC popped up 11% last May and ended May 2019 up 52% — a standout performance from all months following 2018, when crypto markets are generally thought to have matured after that year’s altcoin cycle. These patterns don’t guarantee future performance, they suggest that crypto markets may be increasingly reacting to the same macro and seasonal sentiment as equities, especially as more institutional capital enters the space. Sign of caution? Traders may grow cautious based on historical price seasonality and fading momentum after strong Q1 rallies. Altcoins, especially meme coins, may be particularly vulnerable to pullbacks, given their recent hype-driven rallies and speculative flows. “Since 1950, the S&P 500 has delivered an average gain of just 1.8% from May through October, with positive returns in about 65% of those six-month periods—well below the stronger performance seen from November through April,” Vugar Usi Zade, COO at crypto exchange Bitget, told CoinDesk in a Telegram message. Over the past 12 years, average Q2 returns (April–June) for BTC have stood at 26%, but with a median of only 7.5% — a sign of outlier-driven performance and recurring volatility. By Q3 (July–September), the average return drops to 6%, and the median turns slightly negative, suggesting a pattern of post-Q2 fatigue or consolidation, Zade added, citing data. “This seasonality overlap suggests caution heading into May. Historically, Q4 marks Bitcoin’s strongest seasonal period, with an average return of +85.4% and a median of +52.3%, whereas Q3 tends to deliver more muted or negative outcomes,” Zade said. In short, while Wall Street calendars don’t bind crypto, market psychology still responds to narratives, and “Sell in May” could become a self-fulfilling prophecy — especially if technicals start to crack and sentiment flips. Bitcoin crypto market Top Stories market analysis Shaurya Malwa Shaurya is the Co-Leader of the CoinDesk tokens and data team in Asia with a focus on crypto derivatives, DeFi, market microstructure, and protocol analysis. Shaurya holds over $1,000 in BTC, ETH, SOL, AVAX, SUSHI, CRV, NEAR, YFI, YFII, SHIB, DOGE, USDT, USDC, BNB, MANA, MLN, LINK, XMR, ALGO, VET, CAKE, AAVE, COMP, ROOK, TRX, SNX, RUNE, FTM, ZIL, KSM, ENJ, CKB, JOE, GHST, PERP, BTRFLY, OHM, BANANA, ROME, BURGER, SPIRIT, and ORCA. He provides over $1,000 to liquidity pools on Compound, Curve, SushiSwap, PancakeSwap, BurgerSwap, Orca, AnySwap, SpiritSwap, Rook Protocol, Yearn Finance, Synthetix, Harvest, Redacted Cartel, OlympusDAO, Rome, Trader Joe, and SUN. Shaurya Malwa